Such objects are also vulnerable, over a period of months, to the residual effects of nuclear detonations in the Van Allen belts-areas of the Earth’s magnetic field where protons and electrons generated by nuclear explosions can “get stuck,” damaging satellites on each orbital pass.
That is especially true of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), as they are located at altitudes similar to those traversed by ballistic missiles on typical flight trajectories, so they can be attacked by ballistic missile defense technologies. Satellites in space are likely to remain highly vulnerable to nuclear attack. But so will the missiles they have to counter, in terms of their speed and ability to maneuver warheads, along with the use of multispectral sensors or seekers. To be sure, missile defenses will improve. Thus, while it is at least conceivable that ports and airfields could become much better protected, it is hard to escape the prediction that rail lines, road networks involving large numbers of bridges, tunnels, or elevated routes, and large concentrations of supplies in depots or warehouses will be at least as vulnerable in 2040 as they are today. But because such laser weapons inevitably fall off rapidly in power (as the square of the distance between the weapon and its target), it will be challenging for missile defenses to provide area protection. These laser defenses could help protect ships or ports or airfields against various types of attack. Missile defenses may improve, and may include lasers for point defense in some places. Most aspects of the nuclear situation are unlikely to change. 4 But on balance, technological innovation, including advancements in robotics and AI, makes it quite possible that things could also get worse. The clarity and perhaps the scale of NATO’s security commitments to the Baltic states might have strengthened, reducing the chances of deterrence failure in the first place and improving the initial capacity for resistance to any Russian aggression. 3īy 2040, some aspects of this kind of scenario could improve for American and NATO interests. 2 Alternatively, the NATO deployment could succeed, only to face subsequent Russian nuclear strikes once evidence of NATO’s conventional superiority on the Baltic battlefields had presented Moscow with the Hobson’s choice of either escalating or losing. 1 While the latter concept of nuclear preemption is not formally part of Russian military doctrine, it could influence actual Russian military options today.
WEAPON TECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE SPACE WARFARE SERIES
In a less successful case, Russia could interdict major elements of that attempted NATO deployment through some combination of cyberattacks, high-altitude nuclear bursts causing electromagnetic pulse, targeted missile or aerial strikes on ports and major ships, and perhaps even an “escalate to de-escalate” series of carefully chosen nuclear detonations against very specific targets on land or sea. In that event, it could require a massive deployment of Operation Desert Storm-like proportions to liberate the territory while facing down any Russian reinforcements that might be sent. To date, the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the only uses of nuclear weapons in war.A hypothetical scenario in which Russia creates a pretext to slice off a piece of an eastern Baltic state, occupying it in purported “defense” of native Russian speakers there, could cause enormous problems if NATO chose to reverse the aggression. The bombings effectively ended World War II, but ushered in decades of global fear of nuclear annihilation. In August 1945, two atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. The explosion created a massive mushroom cloud, and the bomb's explosive power was equivalent of more than 15,000 tons of TNT. The first nuclear bomb was detonated on July 16, 1945, during the so-called Trinity test at the Alamogordo Air Base in New Mexico. The Manhattan Project, which began in 1939, has become one of the most well-known secret research programs. The world's first nuclear weapons, or atomic bombs, were developed by physicists working on the Manhattan Project during World War II. These warheads draw their destructive force from nuclear reactions, which release enormous amounts of explosive energy. Nuclear bombs are humankind's most destructive weapons. As Aeby later said, "It was there so I shot it." (Image credit: Jack Aeby) The only color photograph available for the Trinity blast, taken by Los Alamos scientist and amateur photographer Jack Aeby from near Base Camp.
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